Musi waChikunguru 7, musika wekutengesa kabhoni wepasi rose wakavhurwa zviri pamutemo mumaziso emunhu wese, zvichiratidza danho rakakura kumberi mukuita kweChina chikonzero chikuru chekusarerekera kabhoni.Kubva pamuchina weCDM kuenda kune wepurovhinzi kabhoni emissions yekutengesa mutyairi, angangoita makumi maviri emakore ekuongorora, kubva pakubvunza kukakavara kusvika pakumuka kuziva, pakupedzisira kwakauya panguva ino yekugara nhaka yakapfuura uye kuvhenekera ramangwana.Musika wenyika wekabhoni uchangopedza vhiki imwe yekutengesa, uye mune ino chinyorwa, isu tichadudzira mashandiro emusika wekabhoni musvondo rekutanga kubva pakuona kwehunyanzvi, kuongorora uye kufanotaura matambudziko aripo uye mafambiro ebudiriro mune ramangwana.(Kwakabva: Singularity Energy Munyori: Wang Kang)
1. Kucherechedzwa kwemusika wekutengesa kabhoni yenyika kwevhiki imwe
Musi waChikunguru 7, zuva rekuvhurwa kwemusika wepasi rose wekutengesa kabhoni, 16.410 miriyoni matani e quota chibvumirano chechibvumirano chakatengeswa, nekuchinja kwemamiriyoni maviri yuan, uye mutengo wekuvhara waive 1.51 yuan / ton, wakakwira 23.6% kubva pamutengo wekutanga, uye mutengo wepamusoro muchikamu waive 73.52 yuan/ ton.Mutengo wekuvhara wezuva waive wakakwira zvishoma pane fungidziro yeindasitiri ye8-30 yuan, uye huwandu hwekutengesa pazuva rekutanga hwakanga hwakakwirawo pane zvaitarisirwa, uye kuita pazuva rekutanga kwaiwanzo kukurudzirwa neindasitiri.
Nekudaro, huwandu hwekutengesa pazuva rekutanga hwakanyanya kubva kune kutonga uye emission control mabhizinesi kubata gonhi, kubva pazuva rechipiri rekutengesa, kunyangwe mutengo wekutengesa wakaramba uchikwira, vhoriyamu yekutengeserana yakadonha zvakanyanya kana ichienzaniswa nezuva rekutanga rekutengesa, sezvinoratidzwa mumufananidzo uye tafura inotevera.
Tafura 1 Rondedzero yevhiki rekutanga renyika kabhoni emission yekutengesa musika
Mufananidzo 2 Kutengeserana quota muvhiki rekutanga renyika kabhoni musika
Zvinoenderana nemaitiro azvino, mutengo wemvumo unotarisirwa kuramba wakagadzikana uye uchikwira nekuda kwekutenda kunotarisirwa kwemakabhoni, asi mari yavo yekutengesa inoramba yakaderera.Kana ikaverengerwa zvichienderana neavhareji yemazuva ese yekutengesa vhoriyamu ye30,4 matani (avhareji yekutengesa vhoriyamu mumazuva maviri anotevera i2 nguva), mutengo wepagore wekutengesa mutengo unongosvika <>%, uye vhoriyamu inogona kuwedzerwa kana mashandiro acho. nguva inouya, asi mwero wepagore wekuchinja hausati uine tariro.
Chechipiri, matambudziko makuru aripo
Zvichienderana nemaitiro ekuvaka kwemusika wepasirese kabhoni emission yekutengesa musika uye nekuita kwesvondo rekutanga remusika, musika wekabhoni wazvino unogona kunge uine matambudziko anotevera:
Chekutanga, nzira yazvino yekupa maallowance inoita kuti zviome kutengesa kabhoni musika kuenzanisa kugadzikana kwemutengo uye kuenderera kwemari.Parizvino, quotas dzinopihwa mahara, uye huwandu hwese hwemakota hunowanzo kukwana, pasi pechivharo chekutengesa, nekuti mutengo wekutora quotas uri zero, kana kupihwa kwawanda, mutengo wekabhoni unogona kudonha nyore mutengo wepasi;Nekudaro, kana iyo kabhoni mutengo wakagadziriswa kuburikidza nekutarisira manejimendi kana mamwe matanho, ichaita zvisingadzivisiki kudzora huwandu hwayo hwekutengesa, ndiko kuti, ichave yakakosha.Nepo munhu wese akaombera kukwira kuri kuramba kuchiita mitengo yekabhoni, chinonyanya kukosha kutariswa inyaya yakavanzika yekusakwana kwemari, kushomeka kwakanyanya kwehuwandu hwekutengesa, uye kushomeka kwerutsigiro rwemitengo yekabhoni.
Chechipiri, masangano ari kutora chikamu uye marudzi ekutengesa ari oga.Parizvino, vatori vechikamu mumusika wenyika kabhoni vanongogumira kumabhizinesi ekudzora emission, uye makambani ehunyanzvi kabhoni asset, masangano ezvemari uye vanoisa mari vega havasati vawana matikiti emusika wekutengesa kabhoni parizvino, kunyangwe njodzi yekufungidzira yakaderedzwa. asi hazvibatsiri pakuwedzera kwechiyero chemari uye chiitiko chemusika.Kurongeka kwevatori vechikamu kunoratidza kuti basa guru remusika wekabhoni wazvino uri mukuita kwemabhizinesi ekudzora emission, uye hupfumi hwenguva refu haugone kutsigirwa nekunze.Panguva imwecheteyo, marudzi ekutengesa anongori ma quota spots, pasina kupinda kweramangwana, sarudzo, kumberi, swaps uye zvimwe zvinobva, uye kushaikwa kwezvishandiso zvinonyanya kushanda zvekuwana mutengo uye nzira dzekudzivirira njodzi.
Chechitatu, kuvakwa kwekutarisa nekuona hurongwa hwekubuda kwekabhoni kune nzira refu yekuenda.Carbon assets zvinhu zvemukati zvakavakirwa pane kabhoni emission data, uye musika wekabhoni wakanyanya kujeka kupfuura mamwe misika, uye huchokwadi, kuzara uye kurongeka kwekambani kabhoni emission data ndiro dombo rekona rekuvimbika kwemusika wecarbon.Kuomerwa kwekuona dhata resimba uye iyo isina kukwana yemagariro kiredhiti system yatambudza zvakanyanya kuvandudzwa kwesimba rekugadzirisa simba, uye Erdos High-tech Materials Company yakataura zvenhema dhata rekuburitsa kabhoni nemamwe matambudziko, chinova chimwe chezvikonzero zvekumisikidzwa kweiyo kambani. kuvhurwa kwemusika wenyika kabhoni, zvinogona kufungidzirwa kuti nekuvakwa kwezvinhu zvekuvakisa, simende, indasitiri yemakemikari uye mamwe maindasitiri ane simba rakasiyana siyana rekushandisa, maitiro akaomarara ekugadzira uye mamwe akasiyana maitiro ekuburitsa mumusika, kuvandudzwa kweMRV. hurongwa huchavewo hwakaoma zvikuru kukundwa mukuvakwa kwemusika wecarbon.
Chechina, mitemo yakakodzera yeCCER assets haina kujeka.Kunyangwe chiyero chekubvisa cheCCER midziyo inopinda mumusika wekabhoni ishoma, ine mhedzisiro iri pachena pakufambisa masaini emitengo yekuratidzira kukosha kwezvakatipoteredza kwemapurojekiti ekuderedza kabhoni, ayo anotariswa zvakanyanya nesimba idzva, simba rakagovaniswa, masango kabhoni anonyura uye zvimwe zvakakosha. mapato, uye zvakare mukova wemamwe masangano kutora chikamu mumusika wecarbon.Nekudaro, maawa ekuvhura eCCER, kuvepo kwemapurojekiti aripo uye asina kuburitswa, chiyero chekugadzirisa uye kuwanda kwemapurojekiti anotsigirwa hazvisati zvanyatsojeka uye zvine nharo, izvo zvinomisa musika wecarbon kusimudzira shanduko yesimba nemagetsi pamwero mukuru.
Chechitatu, maitiro uye maitiro ekuongorora
Zvichienderana nezviri pamusoro apa uye kuongororwa kwedambudziko, isu tinotonga kuti yenyika kabhoni emission mvumo yemusika icharatidza zvinotevera maitiro uye maitiro:
(1) Kuvakwa kwemusika wekabhoni yenyika ipurojekiti yakaoma
Chekutanga ndechekutarisa kuenzana pakati pebudiriro yehupfumi nemhoteredzo.Senyika ichiri kusimukira, basa rekusimudzira upfumi hweChina richiri kurema zvikuru, uye nguva yasara kwatiri mushure mekunge tasvika panhongonya yekusagadzikana imakore makumi matatu chete, uye kuoma kwebasa iri kwakakwira zvikuru kudarika kwenyika dzakasimukira dzekuMadokero.Kuenzanisa hukama pakati pekusimudzira uye kusarerekera kwekabhoni uye kudzora huwandu hwepamusoro nekukurumidza sezvinobvira kunogona kupa mamiriro akanaka kune kunotevera kusarerekera, uye "kusunungura pekutanga uyezve kuomesa" kunongoita kusiya matambudziko uye njodzi dzenguva yemberi.
Chechipiri ndechekutarisa kusaenzana pakati pebudiriro yedunhu nebudiriro yemaindasitiri.Dhigirii rekusimudzira hupfumi uye magariro uye zviwanikwa munzvimbo dzakasiyana dzeChina zvinosiyana zvakanyanya, uye kurongeka kwepamusoro uye kusarerekera munzvimbo dzakasiyana-siyana zvichienderana nemamiriro akasiyana zvinoenderana nemamiriro ezvinhu chaiwo eChina, kuyedza mashandisirwo emusika wenyika kabhoni.Saizvozvo, maindasitiri akasiyana ane kugona kwakasiyana kutakura mitengo yekabhoni, uye nzira yekusimudzira kusimudzira kwakaringana kwemaindasitiri akasiyana kuburikidza nekuburitsa quota uye kabhoni mitengo yemitengo zvakare inyaya yakakosha yekufunga nezvayo.
Chechitatu ndiko kuoma kwemaitiro emutengo.Kubva pane yakakura uye yenguva yakareba maonero, mitengo yekabhoni inotarwa neiyo macroeconomy, kukura kwese kweindasitiri, uye kufambira mberi kweiyo yakaderera-kabhoni matekinoroji, uye nedzidziso, mitengo yekabhoni inofanirwa kuenzana neavhareji mutengo wekuchengetedza simba uye. kuderedza kuburitsa munzanga yese.Nekudaro, kubva padiki uye padyo-yenguva maonero, pasi pechivharo uye kutengeserana michina, kabhoni mitengo inotarwa nekupa uye kudiwa kwekabhoni assets, uye ruzivo rwepasirese runoratidza kuti kana iyo chivharo-uye-yekutengesa nzira isina musoro, ichaita. kukonzera kuchinja kukuru mumitengo yekabhoni.
Yechina ndiyo yakaoma yedata system.Dhata yemagetsi ndiyo inonyanya kukosha data sosi yekabhoni accounting, nekuti akasiyana emagetsi ekupa masangano akazvimiririra, hurumende, masangano everuzhinji, mabhizinesi ari pakubata kwesimba data haana kukwana uye kwakaringana, yakazara-caliber simba rekuunganidza data, kuronga kwakanyanya. yakaoma, nhoroondo yekabhoni emission database haipo, zvakaoma kutsigira iyo yakazara quota kutsunga uye bhizinesi quota kugoverwa uye hurumende macro-kutonga, kuumbwa kweinonzwika kabhoni emission monitoring system inoda kwenguva refu kuedza.
(2) Musika wenyika kabhoni uchange uri munguva yakareba yekuvandudza
Mumamiriro ezvinhu ekuramba kuri kudzikiswa kwemitengo yemagetsi nemagetsi kudzikisa mutoro kumabhizinesi, zvinotarisirwa kuti nzvimbo yekufambisa mitengo yekabhoni kumabhizinesi ishoma, izvo zvinotarisa kuti mitengo yekabhoni yeChina haizonyanya kukwira, saka basa guru remusika wekabhoni pamberi pekukwira kwekabhoni richiri kunyanya kuvandudza nzira yemusika.Mutambo pakati pehurumende nemabhizinesi, hurumende yepakati uye yemunharaunda, ichatungamira mukugovewa kwakasununguka kwema quotas, nzira yekugovera ichange ichiri yemahara, uye avhareji kabhoni mutengo unomhanya padanho rakaderera (zvinotarisirwa kuti mutengo wekabhoni. icharamba iri muhuwandu hwe50-80 yuan / tani kwenguva yakawanda yenguva yemberi, uye nguva yekuteerera inogona kukwira zvishoma kusvika ku100 yuan / tani, asi ichiri yakaderera maererano neEuropean carbon market uye simba rekuchinja kudiwa).Kana kuti inoratidza hunhu hwemutengo wakakwira kabhoni asi kushomeka kwakakomba kwemari.
Muchiitiko ichi, mhedzisiro yemusika wekabhoni mukusimudzira shanduko yesimba inoenderera haisi pachena, kunyangwe mutengo wekubvumidza wakakwira kupfuura fungidziro yapfuura, asi mutengo wese uchiri wakaderera kana uchienzaniswa nemimwe mitengo yemusika wekabhoni seEurope uye United States, iyo yakaenzana nemutengo wecarbon pa kWh yesimba remarasha yakawedzerwa ku0.04 yuan/kWh (maererano nekubuda kwesimba rekupisa pakWh ye800g). Carbon dioxide (carbon dioxide), inoita kunge ine chimwe chinokanganisa asi chikamu ichi chemutengo wekabhoni chinongowedzerwa kune yakawandisa quota, iyo ine rimwe basa mukusimudzira shanduko yekuwedzera, asi basa rekuchinja kwemasheya rinoenderana nekuramba kuomeswa kwe quotas.
Panguva imwecheteyo, kushomeka kwemari kunokanganisa kuyerwa kwezvinhu zvekabhoni mumusika wemari, nekuti zvinhu zvisiri izvo zvine hupfumi husina kunaka uye huchaderedzwa mukuyera kukosha, zvichikanganisa kusimukira kwemusika wecarbon.Kushaikwa kwemari kusingakonzere kusimudzira nekutengesa zvinhu zveCCER, kana iyo yegore kabhoni musika wekutengesa wakaderera pane inotenderwa CCER offset kuderedzwa, zvinoreva kuti CCER haigone kupinda zvizere mumusika wekabhoni kuti ishandise kukosha kwayo, uye mutengo wayo uchaita. kudzvinyirirwa zvakanyanya, zvichikanganisa kuvandudzwa kwezvirongwa zvinoenderana.
(3) Kuwedzerwa kwemusika wenyika kabhoni uye kuvandudzwa kwezvigadzirwa kuchaitwa panguva imwe chete
Nekufamba kwenguva, iyo nyika kabhoni musika zvishoma nezvishoma inokunda kusasimba kwayo.Mumakore anotevera 2-3, maindasitiri makuru masere achaverengerwa nenzira yakarongeka, iyo yakazara quota inotarisirwa kuwedzera kusvika 80-90 bhiriyoni matani pagore, huwandu hwemabhizinesi anosanganisirwa huchasvika 7-8,4000, uye iyo yakazara musika midziyo ichasvika 5000- <> zvinoenderana neikozvino kabhoni mutengo level bhiriyoni.Nekuvandudzwa kweiyo kabhoni manejimendi system uye nehunyanzvi tarenda timu, kabhoni midziyo haichashandiswe chete kuita, uye kudiwa kwekumutsiridza kabhoni iripo kuburikidza nekuvandudzwa kwemari kuchawedzera kusimba, kusanganisira mabasa emari akadai sekabhoni kumberi, kabhoni swap. , carbon option, carbon leasing, carbon bonds, carbon asset securitization uye carbon funds.
CCER assets inotarisirwa kupinda mumusika wekabhoni mukupera kwegore, uye nzira dzekutevedzera makambani dzichavandudzwa, uye nzira yekuendesa mitengo kubva kumusika wekabhoni kuenda kumagetsi matsva, masevhisi emagetsi akabatanidzwa uye mamwe maindasitiri achavandudzwa.Mune ramangwana, makambani ehunyanzvi kabhoni asset, masangano ezvemari uye munhu anoisa mari anogona kupinda mumusika wekutengesa kabhoni nenzira yakarongeka, achisimudzira vatori vechikamu vakasiyana-siyana mumusika wecarbon, zviri pachena zvakanyanya kuunganidza capital aggregation, uye zvishoma nezvishoma misika inoshanda, zvichigadzira zvishoma nezvishoma zvakanaka. cycle.
Nguva yekutumira: Jul-19-2023